Senate and House 2018 Predictions Contest!

by

You can post your Senate and House 2018 prediction totals here. This thread will be open until November 3rd at 10 am PST.

The person(s) with the highest point total gets 1 year added to their 270soft subscription.

For your totals, include Sanders and King (if you think they will win their seats) as Democratic seats. 50-50 is considered Republican control of the Senate (due to the Vice-President breaking ties).

For House totals, just indicate R or D and then the amount ahead. For example, D+15 if you think the Democrats will have around a 15 seat lead over the Republicans in the House (which would translate to 225-210). If any Independents are elected to the House, they will not be included in the totals.

  • Correctly predict who controls the Senate +10 points
  • Correctly predict who controls the House +10 points
  • -1 point for each 2 Senate seat from results (-0.5 for each 1)
  • -0.1 points for each 2 House seat from results (-0.05 for each 1)

For example, if someone predicts 51D-49R, and the actual result is 52D-48R, then they get +10 for predicting who controls the Senate, but -1 for being 2 away from the correct total = 9 points.

So somewhere near the top of your prediction, write (for example)

51D-49R, D+15

You can then elaborate as much as you’d like below that.

Make sure to use the e-mail associated with your 270soft account in the comment’s e-mail field.

25 thoughts on “Senate and House 2018 Predictions Contest!”

  2. 51R-49D, D+4
    I’m always pessimist, especially after the 2016 election. I see Democrats exceeding this number for the House than I do seeing them falling below it. I’m more certain Dems take the House than I am that Reps keep the Senate, even though both cases seem likely to me. Texas is showing a 500% increase in the youth vote, which could shift the margin of error to O’Rourke. I think if he wins, then it’s a 50/50 tie with Pence as tie breaker. I think Collins and Murkowski will be huge swing senators and hold a lot of power.

  3. Sorry I misread the rules discard my first comment.

    I think the senate will be 54-46 republican so +3 for republicans.

    The house will be 220-215 DEM so a lead of 5 for the democrats.

    [Admin: 54R, +5D]

  7. 51D- 49R Senate
    D +25 House
    Democrats might barely win the Senate, I think they might win in the close races such as AZ, TN, FL, NV and MO. They’ll probably lose ND.
    Democrats will take the House.

  8. 50R-50D
    D+39

    Democratic gains in Nevada and Arizona
    Republican gain in North Dakota

    Senate Control hangs on which party wins half of Missouri, North Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Nevada, and Arizona

  10. 55R-45D Senate +3R House

    Dems will win the generic ballot in the House at D+5.5 but they really needed to be above 6 to get over 218 and the House will end up 219-216 with close races in CA making us wait weeks for it to be official.
    The RCP tossups in the Senate GOP wins FL, IN, MO, AZ, MT and loses NV.

  12. 58R-42D
    +25R (230-205)
    Senate seats that flip will be ND, MO, IN, MT, FL, and any two of OH, NJ, WI, MI, WV, and MN (Franken’s seat, not Klobuchar’s). Heller, McSally, and Blackburn will all win.

  14. I think that it would be 51-49 in favor of the democrats and the dens will have a 20 set majority in the house

    [Admin: 51D, +20D]

  15. 50-50 Senate

    Republicans win ND

    Dems win AZ, NV

    House

    237(D)- 198 (R)

    The only Republican pickup will be Minnesota 8th.

    [Admin: 50R, +39D]

  16. 53-47 R, D+7 (221 D, 214 R)

    Republicans will gain ND and, most surprisingly, NJ (Hugin in NJ has an internal showing him up 2, this is a possibility). All other senate seats are holds.

    Democrats will gain the house, but I am still weary of polls considering 2016. The Generic Ballot polls are around the same margin Clinton had during the last week before the election. I believe that it will not be a blue wave, but rather a blue rippling. It will not surprise me if Republicans hold onto the house in this case.

  18. 50-50 in the senate (GOP wins ND, Dems pick up NV and AZ).

    Democrats win the House, gaining 40 seats, 235-200.

  19. 55R-45D Senate
    R +2 House
    Republican turnout has been slightly higher in tight races, and it does not seem that democratic voter turnout will be large enough for a house takeover.

  22. Republicans keep NV and pick up MO and ND while either also keeping AZ or also picking up FL or IN. Democrats have a net gain of 23, two short of a majority.

Comments are closed.