Sep. 1st start

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In the latest internal version (not released yet), President Infinity can now use polling data for a general election start.

Here is what it looks like for a Sep. 1st start, using the latest state-by-state data from 538.

polling_data

Simulation mode with 100 trials produces wins at Trump 33%, Clinton 64%, Ties 2%.

Ave. %s Trump 42.9%, Clinton 46.9%, Johnson 7.4%, Stein 2.8%.

Ave. seats Trump 245, Clinton 292.2, Johnson 0.8 (since the smallest unit for winning seats is 3 in the game, this means Johnson’s most likely number is 0).

sim_september_1st_start

8 thoughts on “Sep. 1st start”

  1. Good evening,

    I am a political nerd, and this game looks interesting. It is more casual oriented or a more type of “simulation game”? Most political games are just too “arcade” for my liking.

  2. @JoeC

    For me it’s the best political game which is currently available. I wouldn’t call it an Arcade game, it’s definitely a serious and well-balanced political simulation.

  3. Just one comment, South Carolina is a steady red state, the polling data released by South Carolinas Democratic Party chair has been proven inaccurate it’s just as red as Texas.

  5. @anthony

    Re: SC polling, Gravis had the race within 4 points in a poll released August 21st. If you believe polling that has Georgia favoring Trump by 0-2%, Trump only being up 3-5% in South Carolina is absolutely what you would expect. Gravis is hardly a Democratic pollster. They regularly work with a couple of the farthest right outlets on the net. They also, recently, used a strange RV sample in NC where they are apparently projecting half of A/A’s to de-register, move or whatever before the election. That doesn’t even reflect a LV sample where they could argue A/A’s are going to just all stay home this fall. A state like NC is a state that releases exact RV stats regularly. Therefore, having such a sample represents nothing other than either pushing the poll into one direction or (more likely) lazy work.

    Texas is fairly red, and fairly inflexible. They have a growing Hispanic population, but the white population is much more conservative than it is in neighboring New Mexico. If Clinton is up by 2-4% nationally, her being down 9-11% is reasonable in Texas. This being said, Texas would flip before a few of it’s neighbors would. (Like Oklahoma for example)

    A couple other notes: It looks like you have Arkansas more competitive than Indiana and Mississippi? Even though it is a state Bill served as Governor of and Clinton lived there for quite some time; it would trail in flipping behind states like Indiana and Mississippi. Maybe even Texas and Louisiana.

    Also, it seems to me that, if one is playing as Clinton, it is too easy to make West Virginia competitive. Like, I stop there and run a couple ads and it is single digits while I can be down big in IN, MO, TX, GA, SC, AZ, MT, etc. Hypothetically speaking, if the bottom falls out of Trump and Clinton somehow wins in a massive landslide, WV would be one of the last hold outs.

    Not sure if that part is something that can be adjusted just with polling now or is this partially an A.I. issue? It seems like the computer has Democrats active in states where a candidate is down in more so rather than focusing on the marginal states. Particularly the marginal states that are reasonable to win. For example, if Clinton is down 5 in Colorado, 2 in Nevada, 10 in West Virginia and 14 in Indiana: She should be focusing on Colorado and Nevada and ignoring West Virginia and Indiana entirely. Likewise with Trump. Though, in reality, he has been doing some REALLY strange stops so for him an erratic strategy may make sense. Seems like this could be built into the leader attributes. A candidate like Bush or Clinton would work effectively in states that are close that they can win. A candidate like Trump would waste some time in Washington, Michigan, and California. Though, fundraising in states you can’t win is another story. It makes sense for Trump to fundraise in California. Not to run ads there.

  6. @Aaron re Arkansas polling data,

    I am using 538’s data from around Sep. 3rd.

    WV is solid red in this map, is that what you’re referring to?

  7. @Anthony

    I am just saying in the previously released versions, WV seems to start too close and acts really flexible. Still think it may be more of an A.I. issued than a starting %.

  8. Awesome! After favorability, voting blocs, and the like are released, I am going to make a new scenario with RCP polling from every day!

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