22 thoughts on “Third Super Tuesday Open Thread”

  1. Jeez, every Tuesday is now “Super Tuesday”! It cheapens the terms It’s one thing to use it to refer to the day a dozen states vote. Now there are, what, five states voting? Okay, so they’re big states. Can’t you at least come up with a new name? I don’t remember previous cycles being this stupid. Come up with themes, or something.

    Just to be clear, this rant is addressing the media on a platform they aren’t checking. Go me?

  2. @Eric. Maybe we can call it: The Tuesday where we stop pretending that not winning is a perfectly good result? Just spitballing here.

    And what result do we care about today kids? That’s right! All of them but especially Ohio and Florida, just like the general election.

  3. @ Eric

    I think we should call this Tuesday, “Super Tuesday III: Revenge of the Establishment’.

    But I do agree naming every day with more than one primary ‘Super day’ cheapens the impact. Personally, calling today ‘The Ides of March’ sounds more fitting, as a certain senator’s political ambitions might be put on hold after today.

    Aside from Ohio, is there another state Trump might possibly lose? I originally predicted Ill, but after the Chicago protest I feel that will energize Trump’s base and give him a narrow win over Cruz.

  4. @Dylan I’m looking at Missouri and North Carolina as potential Cruz wins: NC is a long shot, but as a native from NC I can tell you that the conservative base there can skew rather conservative. I imagine that’ll be balanced by the Research Triangle Park splitting between Rubio (or maybe Kasich, if his star is truly ascendant) and Trump, by education, and Charlotte for Trump.

    In Missouri, it depends whether Mo acts more Western/Midwestern (supporting Cruz) or Southern/Rust Belt (supporting Trump). I think the Southern and Rust Belt parts of Mo wins out, but we’ll see. There’s not a lot of polling around.

  5. MO is considered a Rust Belt state? I might be oblivious to the state’s demographics, so pardon the ignorance but why do you think it is one? Or do you mean the state follow the trend of MS,and Alabama and other southern states?

    And I honestly can’t see Trump winning Charlotte- since Trump lost Fulton County(Atlanta) and the demographics of the two counties are relatively similar.

  6. @Dylan From my understanding, MO’s North East is similar demographics to Rustbelt States. But really the predominant split is Southern vs. Midwest.

    And on Charlotte: it can get surprisingly racially tense down there, especially within the context of the state’s history and how Charlotte can be socially liberal but also more conservative than the Triangle, all of which are good indicators for Trump. Though, I’m mostly expecting things to go well for Trump in the Mountain Region, in the West, and not so well in the Piedmont and Coast.

  7. @Eric,

    5 states + territory. Only 6, but all 5 states are large and many are or are close to winner-take-all. I think this one deserves the title Super Tuesday, but maybe not the previous one.

  8. I have trump Losing Illinois,Florida,Ohio,and Missouri taking the rest. Rubio taking Florida,Kasich taking Ohio,Cruz taking Illinois and Missouri

  9. I’m gonna call it “Mini Tuesday”.

    I think Sanders wins Missouri and Ohio. Clinton North Carolina and Florida. Close in Illinois.

    Cruz wins Missouri. Kasich wins Ohio. Trump wins all others. North Carolina may be close between Trump and Cruz.

  10. I call it mini Tuesday as well. I think Cruz takes Missouri and Illinois. Kasich wins Ohio. Trump wins Florida, North Carolina(good chance this is a closer one with Cruz), and Northern Mariana Islands.

  11. I’d say Kasich takes Ohio, Cruz takes Missouri and the Northern Mariana Islands, and Trump takes the rest.

    On the democratic side, Hillary takes Florida, Missouri and North Carolina (just), and Bernie picks up Ohio and Illinois.

  12. My last second takes:
    Trump wins Florida, North Carolina and Illinois
    Kasich wins Ohio
    Missouri is too close to call, but I’m very reluctantly thinking a Cruz win (but I really think it’s a toss up between Cruz and Trump)

    On the other side:
    Clinton wins North Carolina, Florida, Missouri
    Ohio and Illinois is too close to call, but a Sander’s win in Illinois and a Clinton win in Ohio.

    We’ll see very soon whether I’m right.

  13. Well Rubio finally bowed out. So I guess it’s an appropriate time to say why, exactly, I was always bearish on him:

    Rubio bored me as a candidate. And that’s really the simple truth. I understood that most people found him a charismatic speaker with a lot of political skill (and I will grant that he managed expectations expertly) but, on the other hand, I never saw it. The glitch moment confirmed, for me, that he needed polish. His repeated failures to win confirmed, for me, that voters weren’t that interested. His adherence to Republican Ideology, with only minor changes, confirmed, for me, that this wasn’t his year.

    And every time I began to doubt, he proved me right. The famous glitch. The sudden collapse of his expectations management. His weird turn toward Potty Humor. So in the end of the day: Rubio wasn’t a strong candidate. He could have been, but he just couldn’t quite make it.

  14. Rubio dropping out should help Ted Cruz. In Illinois, Kasich split the vote with Cruz which allowed Trump to win.

  15. I think Rubio stays a very charismatic guy after all. He is young, good speaker, good debater, energic, he still has a lot to learn but I see him as a next potential leader. I am not a fan if Clinton but she will probably win this race. After that, the GOP field is going to become wide open. I am a little fustrated with the rise of Trump because it prevented young republican leaders from rising up and showing their strenght. This is what happened to Rubio, but also Paul, Cruz, Christie.
    I am not against Trump, but as a fan of politics, I was hoping the new generation could emerge and show good debates. Rand Paul failure was the biggest disappointment to me.

  16. I think Trump has helped Cruz rise. But, I agree that he stopped the ascent of Rubio, Paul, and Christie who were all promising. Paul got especially hit hard in the polls once Trump entered. I was a Rand Paul fan went he was still in. I hope he will try again in the future. I also hope Rubio will gain more experience and try again in the future.

  17. Here are some alterations I’d consider for the next update

    Carson stamina from 3 to 2.

    Jeb Bush charisma from 3 to 2.

    Marco Rubio integrity from 4 to 3 (not sure why it was above average anyway)

    Marco Rubio leadership from 4 to 3 (he’s been in the Senate for a brief amount of time, I’m not sure if he’s had time to really prove a leadership of 4).

    Ted Cruz stamina from 3 to 4. I’d also consider moving his charisma from 3 to 2. No one but his supporters like him.

    John Kasich needs the most alteration I think. Integrity 3 to 4. Experience 3 to 4. Charisma 3 to 2.

    Mitt Romney stamina from 5 to 4 or 3. Romney’s not Teddy Roosevelt.

    Hillary Clinton leadership from 3 to 4 and stamina from 4 to 3.

    Jim Webb integrity from 3 to 2. He’s probably personally honest, but he’s ideologically unreliable.

    Martin O’Malley charisma 3 to 2.

    Elizabeth Warren leadership 3 to 4. She’s new just like Cruz, but like Cruz, she’s arguably a leader of the wing of a party.

    Just my opinions.

  18. I agree with the adjustment of Rubio’s integrity(really started going with personal attacks on Trump) and Kasich’s experience.

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