Super Tuesday (SEC) Predictions

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Hi everyone,

Make your Super Tuesday (SEC) predictions here. I’ll make a ‘highscores’ post on Mar. 2nd (or when the final results are in).

For Dems, there will be two categories. Who correctly calls the candidate for 1st place the most times, and who gets the best absolute %s for 1st and 2nd if they call the correct candidate for 1st.

For Reps, there will be two categories. Who correctly calls the candidates for 1st and 2nd place the most times, and who gets the best absolute %s for 1st and 2nd if they call the correct candidates.

For Dems, the regions are

  • Texas (222)
  • Georgia (102)
  • Virginia (95)
  • Massachusetts (91)
  • Minnesota (caucuses, 77)
  • Tennessee (67)
  • Colorado (66)
  • Alabama (53)
  • Oklahoma (38)
  • Arkansas (32)
  • Vermont (16)
  • American Samoa (caucuses, 6)

For Reps, the regions are

  • Texas (155)
  • Georgia (76)
  • Tennessee (58)
  • Alabama (50)
  • Virginia (49)
  • Oklahoma (43)
  • Massachusetts (42)
  • Arkansas (40)
  • Minnesota (caucuses, 38)
  • Alaska (caucuses, 28)
  • Vermont (16)

Note: I will be locking the thread at 2PM PST, 5PM EST.

You can click the subject link to view the predictions.

13 thoughts on “Super Tuesday (SEC) Predictions”

  1. Note these are almost all PR in some way, shape, or form. The Rep primaries are mostly ‘winner-takes-most’, but those are actually PR (typically mixed statewide and by congressional district) with minimum thresholds (typically 20%) to get any delegates and 50% thresholds for winner-take-all. The Dems side is more straightforward, with PR and 15% minimum thresholds.

  2. Dems:

    Texas – Clinton 59-41
    Georgia – Clinton 55-44
    Virginia – Clinton 57-42
    Massachusetts – Sanders 53-47
    Minnesota – Sanders 54-46
    Tennessee – Clinton 55-45
    Colorado – Clinton 53-47
    Alabama – Clinton 58-42
    Oklahoma – Clinton 56-43
    Arkansas – Clinton 61-39
    Vermont – Sanders 85-15
    American Samoa – Clinton 65-43

    GOP:

    Texas – Cruz-Trump-Rubio-Kasich-Carson
    Georgia – Trump-Rubio-Cruz-Kasich-Carson
    Tennessee – Trump-Cruz-Rubio-Kasich-Carson
    Alabama – Trump-Cruz-Rubio-Kasich-Carson
    Virginia – Trump-Cruz-Rubio-Kasich-Carson
    Oklahoma – Trump-Cruz-Rubio-Kasich-Carson
    Massachusetts Trump-Cruz-Kasich-Rubio-Carson
    Arkansas – Trump-Cruz-Rubio-Kasich-Carson
    Minnesota – Trump-Kasich-Cruz-Rubio-Carson
    Alaska – Trump-Cruz-Rubio-Kasich-Carson
    Vermont – Trump-Cruz-Rubio-Kasich-Carson

    Following this, Kasich and Carson suspend their campaigns (at long last).

  3. Democrats

    Texas:Clinton 63%. Sanders 37%
    Georgia: Clinton 73%. Sanders 27%
    Virginia: Clinton 60%. Sanders 40%
    Massachusetts: Clinton 54%. Sanders 46%
    Minnesota: Clinton 59%. Sanders 41%
    Tennesse: Clinton 64%. Sanders 36%
    Colorado: Clinton 56%. Sanders 44%
    Alabama: Clinton 72%. Sanders 28%
    Oklahoma: Clinton 52%. Sanders 48%
    Arkansas: Clinton 64%. Sanders 36%
    Vermont: Sanders 79%. Clinton 21%
    American Samoa: Clinton 81%. Sanders 19%

    Republicans:

    Texas: Cruz 35%. Trump 34%. Rubio 23%. Carson 6%. Kasich 3%
    Georgia: Trump 40%. Rubio 27%. Cruz 23%. Carson 7%. Kasich 4%
    Tennessee: Trump 43%. Cruz 24%. Rubio 23%. Carson 7%. Kasich 3%
    Alabama: Trump 47%. Rubio 22%. Cruz 21%. Carson 8%. Kasich 2%
    Virginia: Trump 42%. Rubio 29%. Cruz 20%. Carson 5%. Kasich 4%
    Oklahoma: Trump 39%. Cruz 25%. Rubio 24%. Carson 8%. Kasich 4%
    Massachusetts: Trump 49%. Rubio 26%. Kasich 12%. Cruz 11%. Carson 2%
    Arkansas: Trump 38%. Cruz 27%. Rubio 25%. Carson 7%. Kasich 2%
    Minnesota: Rubio 33%. Trump 32%. Cruz 22%. Carson 7%. Kasich 6%
    Alaska: Trump 41%. Cruz 27%. Rubio 21%. Carson 6%. Kasich 5%
    Vermont: Trump 42%. Rubio 27%. Kasich 14%. Cruz 13%. Carson 4%

  4. Reps:
    Texas: Cruz 40%, Trump 26%, Rubio 19%, Kasich 8%, Carson 7%
    Georgia: Trump 37%, Cruz 25%, Rubio 24%, Carson 8%, Kasich 6%
    Tennessee: Trump 36%, Rubio 25%, Cruz 24%, Kasich 9%, Carson 6%
    Alabama: Trump 42%, Cruz 26%, Rubio 20, Carson 7, Kasich 5%
    Virginia: Trump 38%, Rubio 28%, Cruz 24, Kasich 5%, Carson 5%
    Oklahoma: Cruz 31%, Trump 29%, Rubio 26%, Carson 9%, Kasich 5%
    Massachusetts: Trump 46%, Rubio 24%, Kasich 15%, Cruz 13%, Carson 2%
    Arkansas: Trump 30% Cruz 29%, Rubio 27%, Carson 8%, Kasich 6%
    Minnesota: Cruz 29%, Trump 27%, Rubio 25% Kasich 12%, Carson 7%
    Alaska: Trump 31%, Cruz 28%, Rubio 22%, Carson 11%, Kasich 8%
    Vermont: Trump 44%, Rubio 26%, Kasich 16%, Cruz 12%, Carson 2%

    Demi:
    Texas: Clinton 60%, Sanders 40%
    Georgia: Clinton 62%, Sanders 38%
    Virginia: Clinton 59%, Sanders 41%
    Massachusetts: Sanders 51%, Clinton 49%
    Minnesota: Clinton 55%, Sanders 45%
    Tennessee: Clinton 65%, Sanders 35%
    Colorado: Clinton 58%, Sanders 42%
    Alabama: Clinton 68%, Sanders 32%
    Oklahoma: Sanders 51%, Clinton 49%
    Arkansas: Clinton 66%, Sanders 34%
    Vermont: Sanders 71%, Clinton 29%
    American Samoa: Clinton 74%, Sanders 26%

  5. Republicans:

    Texas: Cruz 36%, Trump 29%, Rubio 20%, Carson 8%, Kasich 7%
    Georgia: Trump 41%, Cruz 23%, Rubio 22%, Carson 9%, Kasich 5%
    Tennessee: Trump 35%, Rubio 27%, Cruz 23%, Kasich 10%, Carson 5%
    Alabama: Trump 45%, Cruz 23%, Rubio 19%, Carson 9%, Kasich 4%
    Virginia: Trump 36%, Rubio 30%, Cruz 22%, Kasich 7%, Carson 5%
    Oklahoma: Cruz 31%, Trump 30%, Rubio 25%, Carson 12%, Kasich 3%
    Massachusetts: Trump 46%, Rubio 24%, Kasich 16%, Cruz 12%, Carson 2%
    Arkansas: Trump 31% Cruz 30%, Rubio 28%, Carson 7%, Kasich 4%
    Minnesota: Rubio 28%, Trump 26%, Cruz 25% Kasich 16%, Carson 5%
    Alaska: Trump 32%, Cruz 29%, Rubio 20%, Carson 14%, Kasich 5%
    Vermont: Trump 41%, Rubio 29%, Kasich 18%, Cruz 10%, Carson 2%

    Democrats:

    Texas: Clinton 65%, Sanders 35%
    Georgia: Clinton 64%, Sanders 36%
    Virginia: Clinton 57%, Sanders 43%
    Massachusetts: Sanders 55%, Clinton 45%
    Minnesota: Clinton 60%, Sanders 40%
    Tennessee: Clinton 69%, Sanders 31%
    Colorado: Clinton 51%, Sanders 49%
    Alabama: Clinton 72%, Sanders 28%
    Oklahoma: Sanders 53%, Clinton 47%
    Arkansas: Clinton 68%, Sanders 32%
    Vermont: Sanders 73%, Clinton 27%
    American Samoa: Clinton 78%, Sanders 22%

  6. GOP

    AK: Rubio 35; Cruz 30; Trump 28; Kasich 3; Carson 3
    AR: Trump 40; Rubio 28; Cruz 23; Carson 5; Kasich 3
    GA: Trump 39; Rubio 27; Cruz 21; Carson 8; Kasich 4
    MA: Trump 49; Rubio 24; Kasich 13; Cruz 10; Carson 3
    MN: Rubio 34; Cruz 31; Trump 27; Kasich 4; Carson 3
    OK: Trump 36; Rubio 28; Cruz 26; Kasich 5; Carson 4
    TN: Trump 44; Rubio 26; Cruz 20; Carson 6; Kasich 3
    TX: Cruz 37; Trump 32; Rubio 21; Carson 5; Kasich 4
    VT: Trump 45; Rubio 26; Kasich 16; Cruz 9; Carson 3
    VA: Trump 40; Rubio 30; Cruz 14; Kasich 8; Carson 5

    Democrats

    AL: Clinton 75; Sanders 25
    Am Samoa: Clinton 70; Sanders 30
    AR: Clinton 65; Sanders 35
    CO: Sanders 60; Clinton 40
    GA: Clinton 68; Sanders 32
    MA: Clinton 52; Sanders 48
    MN: Sanders 70; Clinton 30
    OK: Clinton 54; Sanders 46
    TN: Clinton 69; Sanders 31
    TX: Clinton 63; Sanders 37
    VT: Sanders 82; Clinton 18

  7. So here’s some fun. Try to give percentages on some of these states which haven’t had polling in nearly a month if not longer! So I won’t do what I usually do and break down my reasoning beyond some general remarks at the end: it’s going to be polling averages down the line, adjusted for my own personal take on momentum and how bullish and bearish I am for certain candidates. If there’s no polling since at least New Hampshire’s voted, then it’s just guessing.

    Dems:
    Texas: Clinton: 62% Sanders: 38%
    Georgia: Clinton: 67% Sanders: 33%
    Virginia: Clinton: 59% Sanders: 31%
    Massachusetts (my state!): Clinton: 53% Sanders: 48%
    Minnesota: Sanders 51% Clinton 49%
    Tennessee: Clinton: 58% Sanders: 42%
    Colorado: Sanders 53% Clinton 47%
    Alabama: Clinton: 72% Sanders 28%
    Oklahoma: Sanders: 50% Clinton: 50% (Slight Win for Sanders)
    Arkansas: Clinton: 65% Sanders 35%
    Vermont: Sanders: 87% Clinton: 13%
    American Samoa: Clinton: 80% Sanders 20%

    While there’s the general rule: South is good for Clinton, outside is good for Sanders, there are two big exceptions: Massachusetts and Oklahoma. MA is probably the best state for Clinton outside the South, and Oklahoma is the best for Sanders inside it. Beyond that, no real surprises.

    The results I’m looking most forward to, though, are Colorado and Minnesota. Not much polling, if any, have been taken for these two caucuses, but Sanders wants to be looking at winning both, the bigger the better, but lose both and it seems pretty clearly over.

    (Colorado, Minnesota and American Samoa did not have relevant polling, so I guessed based off the demographics of past results; American Samoa is so lopsided since in 2008, they had a record of 285 people vote. Such small size means prone to big swings.)

    Rep:
    Texas: Cruz: 36% Trump: 31% Rubio: 19% Carson: 8% Kasich: 6%
    Georgia: Trump: 40% Cruz: 23% Rubio: 23% (Cruz slightly beating Rubio) Kasich: 7% Carson: 7%
    Tennessee: Trump: 45% Rubio: 22% Cruz: 20% Carson: 9% Kasich: 4%
    Alabama: Trump: 43% Rubio: 22% Cruz: 17% Carson: 12% Kasich: 6%
    Virginia: Trump: 38% Rubio: 30% Cruz: 15% Kasich: 9% Carson: 8%
    Oklahoma: Trump: 35% Cruz: 23% Rubio: 22% Carson: 12% Kasich: 8%
    Massachusetts: Trump: 49% Rubio: 20% Kasich: 17% Cruz: 10% Carson: 4%
    Arkansas: Trump: 37% Cruz: 27% Rubio: 19% Carson: 11% Kasich: 6%
    Minnesota: Trump: 37% Rubio: 29% Cruz: 19% Kasich: 12% Carson: 3%
    Alaska: Trump: 34% Cruz: 29% Rubio: 28% Kasich: 7% Carson: 2%
    Vermont: Trump: 39% Kasich: 22% Rubio: 18% Cruz: 11% Carson: 10%
    Colorado: Trump: 33% Rubio: 31% Cruz: 30% Kasich: 4% Carson: 2%

    I’ve included Colorado since, while it’s vote doesn’t matter for delegates, it matters if Rubio can win it. But more on that in a moment.

    Anyway, things are looking good for Trump. I’m predicting a near sweep, 11/12 (the obvious exception being Texas). Now, I’m not so certain on the three ill polled caucus states: Alaska, Minnesota and especially Colorado. Alaska might be fertile grounds for a Cruz win, while the other two are really the only chances for a Rubio win. And keeping with my trend, I’m again bearish on Rubio, having him come in second in only 6 states, with Cruz in second in 4 and Trump and Kasich in 1. Though on the flip side, it’s only him and Trump that don’t do worse than 3rd I my predictions. Mostly it’s because I’ve seen a slightly downward trend in his numbers, which I think correspond to his new strategy to Try and Out-Trump Trump; a failed strategy on his part IMO since he just comes off as petty to the people he needs to vote for him. (This feeds into a long standing opinion that I have of Rubio, as a campaigner who overreacts, but I’ll leave a more detailed explanation for this a different day.)

    Minnesota, Alaska, Vermont and Colorado did not have relevant polling, so again I estimated ther results based off past voter turnout breakdowns and my own personal intuition. So I’ll be keeping an eye out on those results (since they’re the ones that I’m least confident in my predictions in). Especially Colorado: it’s probably Rubio’s best chance to pick up a win in a state before Puerto Rico this Sunday, and by then it’ll almost be certainly too late (though not necessarily math wise, and he may push for a contested convention). Beyond those, while I’m confident in a Trump win for both Virginia and Oklahoma, how much he wins by will be important, and signal whether there’s any chance of a Rubio comeback. And finally, there’s Texas: the only mystery is whether Rubio will breach 20%. If he doesn’t, then his path just got that much harder, but if he does, then the math could still work out. The only other question is whether Cruz can convincingly beat Trump on Texas. If so, he might be the only person to beat Trump on his (being the not Trump) own territory, with Trump currently polling better than Kasich in Ohio and both Carson and Rubio in Florida. That might give him the advantage in claiming the rest of the field should clear for him, compared to Rubio.

    And that’s that. Let’s see how the results fare when they start pouring in.

  8. *Also it should be obvious to anyone who can add that I messed up Massachusetts for the Dems. It should be Clinton: 53% Sanders: 47%, since my numbers add up to over 100%.

  9. Democrats

    Texas:Clinton 67%. Sanders 33%
    Georgia: Clinton 72%. Sanders 28%
    Virginia: Clinton 65%. Sanders 35%
    Massachusetts: Sanders 51%. Clinton 49%
    Minnesota: Clinton 58%. Sanders 42%
    Tennesse: Clinton 65%. Sanders 35%
    Colorado: Clinton 56%. Sanders 44%
    Alabama: Clinton 75%. Sanders 25%
    Oklahoma: Sanders 51%. Clinton 49%
    Arkansas: Clinton 65%. Sanders 35%
    Vermont: Sanders 80%. Clinton 20%
    American Samoa: Clinton 80%. Sanders 20%

    Republicans:

    Texas: Cruz 34%. Trump 33%. Rubio 25%. Carson 6%. Kasich 2%
    Georgia: Trump 40%. Rubio 20%. Cruz 20%. Carson 10%. Kasich 10%
    Tennessee: Trump 40%. Cruz 24%. Rubio 23%. Carson 7%. Kasich 6%
    Alabama: Trump 40%. Rubio 20%. Cruz 20%. Carson 12%. Kasich 8%
    Virginia: Trump 32%. Rubio 30%. Cruz 15%. Carson 7%. Kasich 6%
    Oklahoma: Trump 30%. Cruz 25%. Rubio 25%. Carson 10%. Kasich 10%
    Massachusetts: Trump 48%. Kasich 22%. Rubio 18%. Cruz 10%. Carson 2%
    Arkansas: Trump 31%. Cruz 29%. Rubio 27%. Carson 8%. Kasich 5%
    Minnesota: Trump 33%. Rubio 32%. Cruz 22%. Carson 7%. Kasich 6%
    Alaska: Trump 41%. Cruz 27%. Rubio 21%. Carson 6%. Kasich 5%
    Vermont: Trump 42%. Rubio 27%. Kasich 14%. Cruz 13%. Carson 4%

    I don’t think anyone drops out after Super Tuesday.

  10. Democrats:

    Texas (222) – Clinton 60, Sanders 40
    Georgia (102) – Clinton 66, Sanders 34
    Virginia (95) – Clinton 54, Sanders 46
    Massachusetts (91) – Clinton 52, Sanders 48
    Minnesota (caucuses, 77) – Clinton 57, Sanders 43
    Tennessee (67) – Clinton 61, Sanders 39
    Colorado (66) – Clinton 52, Sanders 48
    Alabama (53) – Clinton 60, Sanders 40
    Oklahoma (38) – Clinton 51, Sanders 49
    Arkansas (32) – Clinton 70, Sanders 30
    Vermont (16) – Sanders 89, Clinton 11
    American Samoa (caucuses, 6) – Clinton 57, Sanders 43

    Republicans:

    Texas (155) – Cruz 32, Trump 30, Rubio 22, Kasich 9, Carson 7
    Georgia (76) – Trump 35, Rubio 30, Cruz 24, Kasich 7, Carson 4
    Tennessee (58) – Trump 39, Cruz 24, Rubio 23, Kasich 8, Carson 6
    Alabama (50) – Trump 37, Rubio 25, Cruz 18, Carson 11, Kasich 7
    Virginia (49) – Trump 34, Rubio 24, Kasich 19, Cruz 16, Carson 7
    Oklahoma (43) – Trump 32, Cruz 29, Rubio 20, Carson 13, Kasich 6
    Massachusetts (42) – Trump 40, Kasich 25, Rubio 22, Cruz 10, Carson 3
    Arkansas (40) – Trump 33, Cruz 30, Rubio 24, Carson 8, Kasich 5
    Minnesota (caucuses, 38) – Trump 41, Rubio 26, Cruz 15, Kasich 12, Carson 6
    Alaska (caucuses, 28) – Trump 47, Rubio 23, Cruz 17, Kasich 9, Carson 4
    Vermont (16) – Trump 40, Kasich 23, Rubio 22, Cruz 10, Carson 5

  11. *And it’s come to my attention that Colorado won’t even have a voter’s preference poll on the Republican side (which I thought they did). So ignore anything about Colorado, and mentally subtract it from my argument.

  12. Democrats
    Texas Clinton 55 Sanders 45
    Georgia Clinton 60 Sanders 40
    Massachusetts Sanders 56 Clinton 44
    Minnesota Sanders 52 Clinton 48
    Tennessee Clinton 60 Sanders 40
    Colorado Sanders 51 Clinton 49
    Alabama Clinton 66 Sanders 34
    Oklahoma Clinton 53 Sanders 47
    Arkansas Clinton 85 Sanders 15
    Vermont Sanders 75 Clinton 25
    American Samoa Clinton 65 Sanders 35

    Republicans
    Texas Cruz 38 Trump 32 Rubio 20
    Georgia Trump 41 Rubio 22 Cruz 20
    Tennessee Trump 45 Rubio 23 Cruz 22
    Alabama Trump 50 Cruz 25 Rubio 23
    Virginia Trump 49 Rubio 26 Cruz 23
    Oklahoma Trump 35 Cruz 28 Rubio 20
    Massachusetts Trump 52 Rubio 26 Cruz 21
    Arkansas Cruz 36 Trump 28 Rubio 26
    Minnesota Rubio 32 Trump 30 Cruz 27
    Alaska Rubio 36 Trump 34 Cruz 26
    Vermont Trump 45 Rubio 30 Cruz 28

  13. Democrats

    Texas:Clinton 65%. Sanders 35%
    Georgia: Clinton 70%. Sanders 30%
    Virginia: Clinton 62%. Sanders 38%
    Massachusetts: Clinton 52%. Sanders 48%
    Minnesota: Clinton 57%. Sanders 43%
    Tennesse: Clinton 60%. Sanders 40%
    Colorado: Clinton 55%. Sanders 45%
    Alabama: Clinton 71%. Sanders 29%
    Oklahoma: Clinton 55%. Sanders 45%
    Arkansas: Clinton 60%. Sanders 40%
    Vermont: Sanders 72%. Clinton 28%
    American Samoa: Clinton 65%. Sanders 35%

    Republicans:

    Texas: Cruz 30%. Trump 29%. Rubio 29%. Carson 8%. Kasich 4%
    Georgia: Trump 35%. Rubio 32%. Cruz 23%. Carson 7%. Kasich 3%
    Tennessee: Trump 35%. Rubio 32%. Cruz 23%. Carson 7%. Kasich 3%
    Alabama: Trump 39%. Rubio 30%. Cruz 21%. Carson 8%. Kasich 2%
    Virginia: Rubio 36. Trump 34%. Cruz 20%. Carson 6%. Kasich 4%
    Oklahoma: Trump 31%. Cruz 26%. Rubio 26%. Carson 8%. Kasich 4%
    Massachusetts: Trump 45%. Rubio 30%. Kasich 12%. Cruz 11%. Carson 2%
    Arkansas: Trump 30%. Cruz 29%. Rubio 28%. Carson 11%. Kasich 2%
    Minnesota: Rubio 35%. Trump 30%. Cruz 22%. Carson 7%. Kasich 6%
    Alaska: Trump 39%. Cruz 28%. Rubio 22%. Carson 6%. Kasich 5%
    Vermont: Trump 40%. Rubio 29%. Kasich 14%. Cruz 13%. Carson 4%

    I think all the Rubio press coverage and his aggressive campaigning is going to prove more effective than the Cruz people think. I could be wrong of course. I think Rubio will win VA and MN and be second in almost all of the other states with a couple exceptions.

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