Super Tuesday (SEC) Open Thread March 1, 2016 by Anthony_270 This is an open thread for comments on the Super Tuesday (SEC) primaries and caucuses.
21 thoughts on “Super Tuesday (SEC) Open Thread”
Huge wins for Sanders and Cruz in Oklahoma.
Minnesota is possibly Rubio’s best chance at a win. I’m not surprised; even though I’ve long been bearish on Rubio, he was probably going to rack up a win somewhere along the line. I’d be more surprised if he wins Alaska, though. It’s Cruz pretty strong night that surprises me; I was expecting the Texas win, but not Oklahoma. And beating Rubio in 6 as of current count. I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a mini-Cruz renaissance after this, though the difficulty of the next few states still leaves him a long and narrow path to the nomination.
Kasich is proving to be a pure spoiler to Rubio at this point. He cost Rubio the win in Virginia, Vermont, and delegates in Massachuttes. Trump and Cruz have to be ecstatic that Kasich is staying in till March 15.
Trump obviously had the best night but Rubio MN win and Cruz TX and OK wins mean the race isn’t over yet.
Cruz can say he won more states than Rubio but Rubio can say he finishes more consistent than Cruz (Rubio finished in top 3 in every state and Cruz did not)
Cruz will come out around 75 to 100 delegates short of Trump at the end of the night, but 75-100 delegates ahead of Rubio. Cruz by far had a better night than a lot of pundits predicted. Clearly its time for Carson to get out. Kasich will stay in through Ohio, because he will win Ohio. Trump underperformed the polls in almost every state, that spells bad news to any candidate.
The only way I see Trump being stopped is if Cruz and Rubio form a unity ticket and Kasich and Carson drop out. If something like that doesn’t happen Trump will be the nominee. Even if Carson drops out and all his supporters go to Cruz it will not be enough… Unity ticket is only way to stop Trump at this point and even that might be to little too late.
Since there’s no Super Saturday thread yet, I’ll stick my comment in here: looks like Cruz is heading for a good night, at least from early results from Kansas and indirect measures from Kentucky and Maine. I still expect three wins for Trump, but I’m looking for this to be a very bad night for Rubio.
Cruz starts off with a huge night with winning CPAC, Kansas, and Maine. He is also in second in Kentucky right now.
While my predictions predating Super Tuesday was that Rubio needed to at least win a state on Super Tuesday to have a shot (which he succeeded in doing) it’s hard to see his campaign as anything but barely treading water. He’s going to obviously stick around until Florida (where he hopes that being the hometown kid as well as maybe a win in PR tomorrow and a stronger showing in Michigan might salvage his campaign) but it’s hard seeing him stick around in the event of a loss there, which everything points to. Maybe on the theory that he, combined with everyone else, denies Trump the nomination, but none of the candidates use that logic. Rubio staying in will basically be saying he thinks he can win on the convention floor, which seems increasingly unlikely.
This has definitely turned into a 2 man race. Cruz came in strong seconds in Kentucky and Louisiana (along with the 2 wins). Rubio should form an alliance with Cruz to try and stop Trump(Make it so Rubio would be Cruz’s VP candidate).
I personally am not convinced that it’s two man race yet; after all Kasich is a spoiler in Ohio, and besides the small caucus of Maine, we’ve yet to see Cruz excel outside the South and West. I’m waiting for results from Michigan on the 8th and Ohio on the 15th before believing in a two man race.
However I do think it’s a three man race, not four; I’ve been wrong before but my bearishness on Rubio seems to be finally paying off.
Trump is ahead in Michigan, Florida, and Ohio right now. While I think Kasich will probably win Ohio, Trump will probably take Michigan and Florida(which Rubio should drop out). Rubio dropping out would give Cruz more support. Plus, just winning Ohio is not enough for the nomination(especially if that is Kasich’s only win[it is also his home state]). Cruz winning Maine and Alaska show that he can do well outside of the South. Plus there is Idaho coming up which is where Cruz can do well. Hawaii does not have any recent polling to tell. In Mississippi, Cruz will just look to get above the threshold and take some delegates. And on Mini Tuesday(when Ohio votes), Cruz could take Missouri and could do well in North Carolina. There are also a ton of states out west that have not voted yet. The only way Kasich could get into the race would be if he upset Trump somewhere which I do not see happening.
Personally, I hope Rubio doesn’t drop out after Florida. I’d rather risk a Trump presidency than a Cruz presidency, and I think Rubio staying in hurts Cruz. If Cruz becomes president, I’ll probably leave the country until he’s defeated for reelection. The thing with Trump, is that he has no personal platform other than himself. He might actually turn centrist as a president. Rubio is about as right-wing as I can tolerate. Cruz is too far. I’d feel safe with Kasich, although I’d never vote for him.
I don’t think Ted Cruz can hold a long campaign against Donald Trump. Of course, he has strong forces: Tea Party voters, former Ron/Rand Paul libertarian supporters, some evangelicals, … but the Trump’s Independants appeal seems unstoppable. And if Rubio drops out next weeks, the majority of his supporters will probably join Trump’s campaign. The establishment is not so happy with Cruz. He is too much cIose to the grass-roots, and not enough to the establishment. I did’nt expected a campaign like this, what a surprise!
@jonathan I don’t think Trump is centrist or conservative he is a nationalist. I see him really hurting our world image more than any other candidate. His proposals to increase tourture and have a deportation force will greatly harm our world image more than anything Cruz could do. Sorry to any Trump supporters on here but Trump will harm Americas brand. I’m a Rubio supporter but my first choice would be Kasich if I thought he had a chance. Cruz would at least spare us having Someone who will embarrass the country running as the nominee.
My thought is: if Kasich wins Ohio, that’s growing evidence that it’s going to be taken to the convention floor. There, Kasich stakes his argument: he’s seemingly the most moderate, and in a cycle where the Establishment Consensus candidate (Rubio) has basically become damaged goods by constantly underperforming, then he’s the only electable one left. Now that does require it to get to the convention floor, in which Kasich’s presence definitely might actually harm (by siphoning votes from Rubio while not contributing delegates elsewhere to compensate) but again, a loss in Ohio damages Trump’s ability to win outright, and if paired with a loss by Rubio in Florida, advances Kasich’s argument.
And the argument for Cruz, while it looks stronger than two days ago and certainly a week ago, also needs to account for two facts: 1) his wins in Maine and (far less surprisingly IMO) Alaska, while outside his natural region, came in caucuses, where he’s won 4 out of 7, and came in second in the two others, with only Nevada being a particularly bad result for him, since caucuses require very good ground game, which he has in spades and 2) he’s only recently, seemingly, getting his message to libertarian inclined voters, and so we’ll see if that goes anywhere.
Yes Cruz looks a lot better, but I’d still say that the next week and a half proves whether Cruz is a viable candidate, rather than being premature and claiming it now.
There have been polls that show many Rubio supporters have Cruz at their 2 and many Cruz supporters have Rubio as their 2. The reason is because they are very similar on most issues(immigration is really the only big difference). I would not be surprised at a brokered convention, but I expect the top 2 to be Trump and Cruz. There are the state support rules(see Ron Paul) which will limit candidates that did not win enough states.
While Rule 40(b) does limit the nominees to the winners of at least 8 states, I feel if it’s down to Trump and Cruz the party will throw that rule out the window, which they have the power to do.
I think that if a brokered convention happens and Trump is 1 and Cruz is 2, the party will nominate Cruz in order to stop Trump(with Rubio supporting Cruz unless he is out already).
I don’t know. The establishment hates Cruz plenty. You even had establishment stalwarts like Bob Dole say they prefer Trump because they think they can work with him. Besides, Trump has said he would lean towards an establishment-type for VP, so he’s already looking to squeeze Cruz.