7 thoughts on “Nevada (R) Thread”

  1. So I’m going to make a prediction: if the order is Trump, Cruz and Rubio and Trump wins by 15 points, then Trump will be the nominee.

    Now Nevada doesn’t matter in the long run: in 2012 only 1.9% of eligible voters voted in the Republican Caucus. It does not represent the electorate at all. However, that’s not what matters. What matters is two things:

    1. When will Rubio when a state? This, to me, is the most important question. The obvious answer is Florida, but if Florida is his first win then that’s just too late. My personal guess is if he doesn’t win Nevada, then he needs to win a state on March 1, and I don’t know what state he would win: none are really a good fit for him. But a good enough result in Nevada might turn that around, depending on:

    2. What is the media narrative coming out of Nevada? While I personally believe that if Rubio doesn’t win, his chances of getting the nominee vastly are reduced (based on my still bearish view on Rubio’s chances), I know that twice, now, the media has annoited Rubio the winner of states he didn’t actually win. And that has undoubtedly helped Rubio. So I think that there are two narratives that Rubio wants: a) Rubio continues to sweep away all nonTrump opponents, and/or b) Trump underperformed again. Now, the best for Rubio is obviously Rubio beats Trump, primaries now over, but presuming that doesn’t happen, he wants one of those two narratives floating around post Nevada. However, that’s not possible in the situation outlined above (and probably other potential results, but the result I’m talking about definitely precludes that in a world where we pretend Nevada matters). And really, it might even push a counter narrative: Rubio’s state was supposed to be Nevada, until he gambled it in his absolutely failed 3,2,1 strategy. He lived there, and is supposed to understand it. But a crushing 3rd place finish? Well, I don’t think the media is going to abandon Rubio. But I think that it raises, even more, the question above.

    So the only thing that really can save Rubio is that everyone pretends that Nevada didn’t happen and so he’s in the same situation as before.

    Also I didn’t talk much about Trump or Cruz in this long meditation on why such a result would mean Trump wins: well Trump needs to be proven to be beatable (and apparently Iowa doesn’t count), and Cruz’s path to the nomination pretty much was dashed by vastly underperforming in South Carolina. He needs to prove that was a fluke, as well as keep Trump and Rubio away from as many delegates in Southern States as possible, before I include him in the race as anyone more than someone ruining Rubio’s chances.

  2. And that was a lot longer than I thought…. Oops. Oh well; I’m not putting that out there as an infallible theory, I’m curious if you’re buys agree or think it’s absolutely crazy.

  3. I missed the predictions thread because of the very small time table. So, I will post them here.

    Trump: 32%
    Cruz: 25%
    Rubio: 23%
    Kasich: 15%
    Carson: 5%

  4. Same here, I missed the thread too…

    Trump 33
    Cruz 24
    Rubio 23
    Kasich 14
    Carson 6

    I know it’s too late but anyway… 🙂

  5. What I am more interested in is: with the party elites promoting Rubio- a member of the Gang of Eight- and think he can take on Trump. this difference between the immigration reform candidate and one whom wants to tighten our border, what will the future of the party be on this issue?

  6. @Dylan

    No matter if Trump is the eventual nominee (which I’d say his odds are greater than not at this point), the future of the Republican Party has to include a softening on immigration (amongst other issues) or else be resigned to a fate of being a Right Wing White Nationalist party. That doesn’t mean they have to embrace full immigration reform, just part of the way.

    And remember: Trump polls at about 35% nationally; while Rubio and Cruz have also adopted hardline policies against Immigration reform, their opposition seems to be built on the seeming popularity of Trump’s.

    Now the activist base who actually votes in primaries and caucuses are anti-Immigration reform, but still. It’s not necessarily this election that’s important for the future of the Republican Party (though obviously capturing the White House would be a large boon for them), but rather what they do afterwards, in how they pursue policies and voters.

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