New Hampshire Highscores

by

Congratulations to everyone who made a prediction!

The work for this is included in the spreadsheet New Hampshire Primaries Predictions. If I’ve made any errors or overlooked anything, please let me know!

Highscores, Reps (Actual results: Trump 35.3%, Kasich 15.8%, Cruz 11.7%)

Only one person got the correct top 3 in order. Kevin correctly called Trump-Kasich-Cruz (26-20-18).

6 people got Trump-Kasich correct. Dylan and Aaron tied for first in terms of ave. % point error, at 2.55.

  • Dylan (31-15)
  • Aaron (31-15)
  • Rophil (31-17)
  • Jeff (27-16)
  • William (25-23)
  • Jesse (22-20)

Eric correctly called the top 3, but not in the right order (Trump-Cruz-Kasich), at 28-16-14.

3 people also called the correct winner in addition to the people above.

  • Chris (Trump-Rubio, 30-17)
  • Luki (Trump-Rubio, 24-21)
  • Nick (Trump-Rubio, 24.5-22.3)

For contrast, Nick Silver (Trump-Rubio-Kasich, 26.8-15.7-15.2) of 538 fame didn’t get the top 3 in order (Kevin beat him), didn’t get the top 2 right (Dylan, Aaron, Rophil, Jeff, William, and Jesse beat him), and didn’t get the top 3 even out of order (Eric beat him). He did correctly call a Trump win though, so how did he do on the spread between 1st and 2nd (probably the most significant number of the night)? He would have come fifth here, after Dylan, Rophil, Aaron, Chris.

Highscores, Dems (Actual results: Sanders 60.4%, Clinton 38%)

Everyone who made a prediction accurately predicted the winner. Listed in order of ave. % point error.

  1. Eric (59-40, 1.7)
  2. Chris (59-41, 2.2)
  3. Jesse (58-41.8, 3.1)
  4. Kevin (57-42, 3.7)
  5. Jonathan (56.5-43, 4.45)
  6. Jeff (56-44, 5.2)
  7. Nick (55-45, 6.2)
  8. Aaron (54-45, 6.7)
  9. Luki (54-46, 7.2)
  10. Rophil (53.2-46.8, 8)
  11. Dylan (53-47, 8.2)
  12. William (52-48, 9.2)

For contrast, Nate Silver (57.2-39.9, 2.55) would have placed 3rd here.

 

6 thoughts on “New Hampshire Highscores”

  2. @Jonathan,

    I didn’t make one! I thought Trump would win, but I was surprised by the extent of the win (doubling 2nd place). I also thought Christie might make a move in the last few days after Rubio’s notable bad debate moment, but it looks like it was Kasich who got those undecideds. I also thought Sanders would win, and my intuition was something like 60-40, which was surprisingly close to what happened.

  4. I didnt expect turnout to be so high among Democrats and Hillary’s recent push would be for nothing. Honestly felt she could’ve made a few converts, but I’m curious what will the Clinton camp make of him out performing her and now pushing hard in SC-a recent NYTimes article talks how a rural black town is leaning towards Bernie. But the Republican side, I didn’t expect the debate to hurt Rubio, figured everyone made their minds up days before the polls.

    So as the GOP head into SC in 9 days-Christie out, Kaisich has no ground game, Rubio is still damaged goods, and Jeb is praying for that sudden surge- where is the establishment heading?

  5. Unless Rubio can make comeback it looks like Trump will be the nominee. Ted Cruz has an outside chance if he does well on super Tuesday (which he does have a chance since its southern states).
    I think the establishment is hoping Rubio can hit several home runs in the next debate but if he falters again its pretty much over for him. If Rubio has an awesome debate he will become the establishments preferred nominee again and the race will be long. If Rubio falters they can either get behind Cruz and fight Trump and make it a race or just allow Trump to become the nominee.

    On the Dem side I still think Hillary has an 80-90% chance of being the nominee. Bernie only has two ways he can become the nominee. The first is his efforts to become the preferred choice of minority voters is successful. The second is if something happens with Hillary’s emails.

Leave a Comment