I underestimated Trump and overestimated Rubio and Christie
The Dem race was realatively easy to predict and that debate affected Rubio more than I thought it would
I got the Rubio collapse correct, but I also thought Christie would win from his collapse. That Trump momentum would fall and Kasich would perform even better than he did.
Cruz, is probably the big winner of the night. Marco collapsed which leaves the race still crowded and the “establishment” frantically searching for one candidate. Christie will get out, most likely, but Kasich and Bush will stay in through at least SC and NV. As the infighting continues, voters will begin to deflect to someone they believe will beat Trump, and only one candidate, thus far, has proven he can do that. Besides that, Cruz could also peel off some of Rubio’s support from self described “somewhat conservative” voters, because of his strong showing in New Hampshire.
Ya, Cruz had a good night. Finishing third is good for him because of how different New Hampshire is from Iowa(less Evangelicals; more moderate). He also spent very little per vote. There are a ton of Rubio supporter who have Cruz as their 2nd(and vice versa), so a Rubio drop should benefit Cruz. I agree that Christie probably drops out. He is not even going to get over the margin for delegates. Carson and Fiorina should get out, but they may stay in the race. Kasich will try to stay in as long as possible. Bush should get out if he does not perform in South Carolina or Nevada.
@Anthony
Are you going let us make our New Hampshire predictions?
Thanks for this.
http://270soft.com/2016/02/09/new-hampshire-predictions/
Looks like I was way off on the prediction
I underestimated Trump and overestimated Rubio and Christie
The Dem race was realatively easy to predict and that debate affected Rubio more than I thought it would
I got the Rubio collapse correct, but I also thought Christie would win from his collapse. That Trump momentum would fall and Kasich would perform even better than he did.
Cruz, is probably the big winner of the night. Marco collapsed which leaves the race still crowded and the “establishment” frantically searching for one candidate. Christie will get out, most likely, but Kasich and Bush will stay in through at least SC and NV. As the infighting continues, voters will begin to deflect to someone they believe will beat Trump, and only one candidate, thus far, has proven he can do that. Besides that, Cruz could also peel off some of Rubio’s support from self described “somewhat conservative” voters, because of his strong showing in New Hampshire.
Ya, Cruz had a good night. Finishing third is good for him because of how different New Hampshire is from Iowa(less Evangelicals; more moderate). He also spent very little per vote. There are a ton of Rubio supporter who have Cruz as their 2nd(and vice versa), so a Rubio drop should benefit Cruz. I agree that Christie probably drops out. He is not even going to get over the margin for delegates. Carson and Fiorina should get out, but they may stay in the race. Kasich will try to stay in as long as possible. Bush should get out if he does not perform in South Carolina or Nevada.