15 thoughts on “Iowa Thread”

  1. Two questions: Will the Iowa Caucus result lead to an update in the game? Any chance that the 2012 scenario could be updated to include a Santorum surge. He seems to never play out properly.

  2. @Jonathan,

    Maybe – I will have to see how a Feb. 2nd start date actually works.

    Re 2012, once Favorability is in, modeling a Santorum surge should be easier.

  3. Who is everyone supporting? I’m hoping Rubio can have a good surge and at least leave Iowa looking like the winner.

  4. The winter storm threat should help Clinton and Cruz since Bernie and Trump are banking on high voter turnout.

  5. Part of me is hoping Sanders wins, but I also think it may help Democrats more if Clinton just runs the table. I like Sanders more.

    For Republicans, I’d want either Christie or Kasich to get an upset “victory” by landing 3rd (I know they can’t get first). I’m torn because a Trump or Cruz nomination would be an easy victory for Clinton, but I also don’t want to take the risk of a Trump or Cruz presidency. At least with Christie or Kasich, I can expect reasonable governance.

  6. By the way, I recommend reading The Party Decides: Presidential Nominations Before and After Reform. There’s a chance this election could defy the book’s several theses, but this is unlikely.

  7. I’m curious as to who won the Iowa predictions on here. I feel like I got close with the two winners. I was less accurate with my prediction for the weaker candidates.

  8. @Jonathan, I’ll be writing up the results in a new post today.

    Contrary to what seems like the standard view of the Iowa results, I think all the major players have something to be happy about, and something to not be so happy about.

    Clinton can be happy to technically get a win (assuming it holds up if there’s a recount), but not so happy that it was basically a tie. Remember, Obama won Iowa in 2008 but with much less of a % than Sanders.

    Sanders can be happy to practically get a tie and close strong, but not so happy that it was technically a loss.

    Cruz can be happy to take first, but not so happy that it was only 3.5% when he plowed huge resources into the state.

    Trump can be happy he got second with little in the way of a ground game (and that N.H. is next in a week, where he leads), but not so happy that he didn’t get first and came close to third.

    Rubio can be happy that (like Sanders) he closed strong, distinguished himself from the rest of the pack, and almost came second, but not so happy because he came third (a strange thing to celebrate).

    Kasich, Bush, and Christie can be happy that Trump didn’t win, but not so happy that Rubio has emerged as the main ‘establishment’ candidate in Iowa.

    Most of what comes from Iowa is spin – the actual delegates won matter precious little unless the race ends up being very tight.

  9. Going back to Reagan, only 2 of the eventual Republican nominees (where there wasn’t an incumbent Republican president running) won Iowa. 1980 Reagan lost Iowa. 1988 H.W. Bush lost Iowa. 1996 Dole won Iowa. 2000 W. Bush won Iowa. 2008 McCain lost Iowa (placing fourth!). 2012 Romney lost Iowa. So, 33% of winners of Iowa went on to win the nomination since 1980.

    538 has a good run down of why Iowa might matter for Trump and Sanders (and it applies to the rest of the candidates as well) here


  10. My guess is that Trump is very happy to get Iowa behind him – he was not a good fit for the state. My guess is that more important than what happened in Iowa on the Republican side is what happens in N.H. My sense is that Cruz has little chance of winning there, so my guess is that it’s really a race between Trump and Rubio-Christie-Kasich-Bush.

    For Dems, on the other hand, N.H. will give Sanders a big win but the rest of the primaries schedule looks daunting for him. Clinton will most likely take S.C., and after that the next round is heavily southern states that favor Clinton. A tough row to hoe for him.

  11. I think Romney and McCain are going to endorse Rubio in New Hampshire to bring back an establishment coalition against Cruz and Trump. However, his third place surge in Iowa will help him gaining the attention of the voters and the media. If he does well again in the next debate, New Hampshire, more likely to support moderates than Iowa, will be a good win for win.

    I see likely Trump winning in South Carolina and Cruz in Nevada ( a place more libertarian).

    But I have serious doubt about a Cruz nomination, because of the division of the evangelical and Tea Party/libertarian vote between Trump and himself.

    Do you think the Cruz-Trump match and the support of the Party leaders will secure a nomination for Rubio? This is my prediction.

  12. Where does Kaisich play into this? He has been surging in NH within the past month. I can’t see him easily letting Rubio waltz right in and steal his hard earned votes.

  13. @Dylan,

    Ya, I find the dynamics between Rubio-Kasich-Bush-Christie the most interesting right now. If Cruz and Trump are smart, they’ll renew their non-aggression pact for N.H., and focus their fire on Rubio. Kasich, Bush, and Christie really have to focus on Rubio as well, as they are probably thinking it’s N.H. or bust for their campaigns. And any maneuvers have to happen within one week – not much time to recalibrate.

  14. I don’t think Rubio and McCain will endorse Rubio so early. He’s more conservative than they want. They’ll see how Kasich, Bush and Christie do in NH. If Rubio and one of these moderates are about tied going into SC, I think they will endorse the moderate. If Rubio looks to be the only one to beat Trump or Cruz, then they’ll endorse Rubio.

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